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Time to Start Thinking About Shelter?

Like the headline? Does it make your heart race and then you become worried and intrigued enough to read more? Regarding “News articles” these days -If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em! I can write scary headlines too!

Our local media outlets are guilty of scare tactics to get their viewer numbers up, and the most conspicuous offender – uses fear inducing headlines to sell local newspapers. Realtors of course, on the contrary, are accused of only painting rainbows about our local market. Who can you believe?

Let’s take a look at the recently released statistics regarding July sales and see if we can form an educated decision about the local Austin real estate market.

May 2007 – 2698

June 2007 – 2772

July 2007 – 2621

Compared to:

May 2008 – 2094

June 2008 – 2182

July 2008 – 2071

Percentage declines:

May-May down 22.3%

June-June down 21.3%

July-July down 20.9%

You can see that as we are moving through time, the year over year declines are steady to improving, not getting worse! My perception is that the meltdown effect on Austin is about half of this reduction. What I’m proposing is that part of this reduction is a normal slowdown portion of our cycle (with an assumption of a cycle peak summer ’06) of appx. 10-12%, and a “mortgage meltdown” induced adjustment of 8-10% reduction in sales – totaling 20%. The mortgage mess hit us mid-month in August of last year, which means we won’t see year over year normalcy, with mortgage scare factor occurring in both months compared, until comparing Sept 07 to Sept 08. ABoR releases September stats around the 20th of October, until then expect one more round of headlines touting 19-20% declines. In late October the year over year declines should be down to 10-12%.

Contact me to discuss at length.

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