Treasury prices are higher to start the week after an uneventful weekend.
With little to no apparent progress made on the budget impasse, treasury prices are benefitting from fears that the shutdown will slow the already sluggish US recovery.
This week’s economic calendar gets off to a slow start but will pick up momentum as the week progresses.
Key activity includes tomorrow’s International Trade report, Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes, and Friday’s PPI and Retail Sales report.
There will also be a fair amount of Fed speak sprinkled throughout the week.
It seems that there was little progress made over the weekend by Congress to resolve the current government shutdown.
The impasse over the shutdown and the debt ceiling continues with Speaker Boehner stating on the Sunday morning talk shows that the House Republicans would not pass an increase to the debt limit without concessions by the Democrats.
The administration has also stated that no negotiations with Republicans will take place until the shutdown is ended and the debt ceiling is increased.
This deadlock continues; and, while the government is shut down, many of the scheduled economic releases will be delayed.
Today’s report on consumer credit will be unaffected; but, if the shutdown continues deeper into the week, the September PPI and Retail Sales figures could be delayed.
September’s jobs report, which was supposed to be released on Friday, has already been delayed; and it is unclear when the market will get that data once the shutdown comes to an end.
Economic Calendar for this week 10/07/13 – 10/10/11/13:
| Date | Time | Event | Survey | Prior | |
| 10/7/2013 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Aug | $12.000B | $10.437B |
| Gov. Releases Delayed Due to Shutdown | |||||
| 10/8/2013 | 7:30 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Sep | 94 | 94 |
| 10/8/2013 | 8:30 | Trade Balance | Aug | -$39.5B | -$39.1B |
| 10/8/2013 | 10:00 | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | Oct | 43 | 46 |
| 10/8/2013 | 10:00 | JOLTs Job Openings | Aug | — | 3689 |
| 10/9/2013 | 7:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 4-Oct | — | -0.40% |
| 10/9/2013 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Aug | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 10/9/2013 | 10:00 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | Aug | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 10/9/2013 | 14:00 | Fed Releases Minutes from Sept 17-18 FOMC Meeting | |||
| 10/10/2013 | 8:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 5-Oct | 310K | 308K |
| 10/10/2013 | 8:30 | Continuing Claims | 28-Sep | 2875K | 2925K |
| 10/10/2013 | 8:30 | Import Price Index MoM | Sep | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| 10/10/2013 | 8:30 | Import Price Index YoY | Sep | -0.90% | -0.40% |
| 10/10/2013 | 8:45 | Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey | |||
| 10/10/2013 | 9:45 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 6-Oct | — | -29.4 |
| 10/10/2013 | 16-Oct | Monthly Budget Statement | Sep | $65.0B | — |
| 10/11/2013 | 8:30 | PPI MoM | Sep | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 10/11/2013 | 8:30 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Sep | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 10/11/2013 | 8:30 | PPI YoY | Sep | 0.60% | 1.40% |
| 10/11/2013 | 8:30 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Sep | 1.20% | 1.10% |
| 10/11/2013 | 8:30 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | Sep | 0.00% | 0.20% |
| 10/11/2013 | 8:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | Sep | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 10/11/2013 | 8:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | Sep | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 10/11/2013 | 8:30 | Retail Sales Control Group | Sep | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| 10/11/2013 | 9:55 | Univ. of Michigan Confidence | Oct P | 76 | 77.5 |
| 10/11/2013 | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Aug | 0.30% | 0.40% |